KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The study aimed to estimate the burden of leukemia and project it through 2030.
- Researchers found that found leukemia cases rising globally, while ASRs declined, urging action in middle and high-middle SDI countries.
Leukemia is a severe disease whose incidence rises with age. The World Health Organization (WHO) has named 2021-2030 as the decade of healthy aging, emphasizing the need to address age-related diseases.
Wenjun Wang and the team aimed to estimate the burden of leukemia and forecasted it through 2030.
The study used the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database to systematically analyze the geographical distribution of leukemia and its subtypes. Joinpoint regression and Bayesian age-period-cohort models evaluated incidence and mortality trends from 1990 to 2019 and projected through 2030.
The analysis covered 5 leukemia subtypes and considered the effects of age, gender, and social development. Decomposition analysis assessed the impact of aging and population growth on disease burden, while frontier analysis illustrated each country’s potential to reduce its burden based on development levels.
The results showed that while the global absolute numbers for leukemia incidence and mortality have increased, age-standardized rates (ASRs) have decreased. The disease burden was notably higher in men, the elderly, and regions with a high socio-demographic index (SDI), with varying impacts from aging and population growth across subtypes.
Disease burdens were most effectively controlled between 2000 and 2006. Global ASRs for incidence may stabilize, whereas ASRs for death are expected to decrease by 2030. Frontier analysis indicated that middle and high-middle SDI countries have the greatest potential for improvement. Smoking and high body mass index were identified as major risk factors for leukemia-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years.
The study concluded that while the global number of leukemia cases has risen, age-standardized rates have sharply declined over the past decade, mainly due to population growth and aging. Middle and high-middle SDI countries must urgently address this issue.
No funding information was available.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39173170/
Wang W, Zhang D, Liang Q, et al. (2024). “Global burden, risk factor analysis, and prediction study of leukaemia from 1990 to 2030.” J Glob Health. 2024;14:04150. Published 2024 Aug 23. doi:10.7189/jogh.14.04150
