KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting CSM in HER2+ breast cancer utilizing SEER database information.
- The nomogram accurately predicted breast cancer CSM, offering theoretical guidance for clinicians’ decision-making.
Cancer-specific mortality (CSM) rates in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive (HER2+) breast cancer patients show significant variability, with persistent challenges.
Nan Wu and the team aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific mortality in HER2+ breast cancer using SEER database information.
Clinicopathological data from HER2+ breast cancer patients diagnosed between 2000 and 2019 were extracted from the SEER database. Independent prognostic factors for cancer-specific mortality were determined using a competing risk model.
A new predictive nomogram was then developed. Calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analyses assessed the nomogram’s performance. The study included 45,362 breast cancer patients from the SEER database, randomly divided into training (n = 31,753) and validation (n = 13,609) cohorts.
Univariate and multivariate analyses identified age, race, tumor grade, clinical stage, T stage, surgery status, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and regional nodes examined as independent risk factors for cancer-specific mortality in HER2+ breast cancer patients. Receiver operating characteristic curves for the nomogram predicting CSM demonstrated 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs of 0.874, 0.843, and 0.820 in the training cohort and 0.861, 0.845, and 0.825 in the validation cohort, respectively.
The c-index was 0.817 and 0.821 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves displayed good agreement between observed and predicted outcomes in both cohorts. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram in both cohorts.
The nomogram demonstrated reliable accuracy in forecasting breast cancer patients’ CSM, offering theoretical guidance for clinicians’ decision-making processes. The study received no funding.
Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38489717/
Wu N. (2024) “Construction and validation of nomogram for the cancer-specific mortality for HER2-positive breast cancer patients.” Medicine (Baltimore). 2024 Mar 15;103(11):e37330. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000037330. PMID: 38489717; PMCID: PMC10939670.
